Dissecting Labor’s federal election win and the Coalition’s collapse

Anthony Albanese retained his position as Prime Minister for another three-year term after a 90-seat win over Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party.

It was a convincingly quick reveal, surprising most, and the night ended abruptly at around 8:30 pm with speeches from both candidates.

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“Let all of us work together to build Australia back on the enduring foundations of fairness, equality and respect for one another,” said Albanese in his victory speech.

The Prime Minister boldly mentioned not needing “to beg, borrow or copy politics from anywhere else”.

“We do not seek our inspiration from overseas. We find it right here in our values and in our people,” he said.

Peter Dutton, riding the wave of the Trump win, had to, unfortunately, concede his defeat, as the Liberals, once again, lost the election.

The Liberals proved unpopular among renters and young voters, the majority of whom looked to Labor, independents and the Greens. Though they held Monash and Flinders in Victoria and Longman in Queensland.

The LNP narrowed themselves down to baby boomers, but lost the moderate suburban middle class — as seen in Tasmania, where Coalition seats such as Lyons and Bass swung strongly to Labor.

As we know, Donald Trump’s US presidential campaign ran on his promise to fix the economy, instil strong borders, continue drilling for oil, and keep “left-wing propaganda” out of public schools. He banked on “rolling over the log” of the managerial class in the WhiteHouse and ending war.

Peter Dutton, championing the more conservative faction of the Coalition, took pages from John Howard’s and Malcolm Turnbull’s books, cherry-picking those hot topics from Trump’s campaign to use for his own.

For example, he wanted to undo Labor’s additional employment of 41,000 Canberra-based public servants to save $7 billion, advocated for stricter migration by banning foreign investors from home ownership for two years to help Australians get into the property market, and went on about slimming down ‘indoctrination’ in schools.

Peter Dutton ran fast with nuclear to tackle high energy prices as an alternative power source to renewables, and, as we saw, the price of the project became a zesty trigger point between the two federal candidates.

Dutton used Frontier Economics to calculate the total cost of the project, which worked out to a maximum of $331 billion by 2050. Labor chose to ignore those figures and used the renewable energy lobbying group Smart Energy Council, which costed the plan at $600 Billion.

These two competing bits of information are a perfect example of how society has been shaped in recent years to argue, not over ideas, but points of information — as a result of getting them from different sources. Doing that was a cunning political move by Labor, but the Coalition had little means of damage control for that.

There was a lot that happened for Dutton that didn’t work in his favour, trimming his appeal over time.

Dutton fell short on his likeability currency, with YouGov polls showing his satisfaction rating at -24% after a lot of his messaging got lost behind the veil of pernicious mishaps and ‘bad luck’.

Moments like Dutton kicking a football into a cameraman’s head in Darwin and not being seen to make amends, his own son woefully saying he can't afford a house, hyperactive anti-nuclear protesters, and failing to know the price of eggs (his guess: $4.20), were two steps back in his one step forward.

It was also pointed out on the ABC that neither candidate had visited an Aboriginal community during their campaign.

“Neither side of politics has done well enough for First Nations people, that's just a fact,” said Albanese.

Our two major parties have always played a game of tug-of-war when it comes to people’s fears and aspirations to garner votes and win seats. The recent discussions surrounding Welcome to Country and Dutton’s unwillingness to stand in front of the Aboriginal flag was a maverick move by the conservative Liberal faction.

“First Nations people are sick of being used as a political football,” said ABC News Breakfast anchor Bridget Brennan on election night. The Liberals had policy in place for Indigenous Australians to deal with abuse and education, but the message got lost.

Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians Jacinta Nampajimpa Price, saying “Make Australia Great Again”, and then backtracking to say that she wanted to “get Australia back on track”, took away from the consistency of the campaign’s messaging.

“I don't think Peter Dutton kicked off on the right foot during the campaign,” said former National Party MP for Dawson, George Christensen.

At the end of 2024, Americans were feeling the brunt of high inflation and were struggling to afford staple food under the Biden administration.

There was also a growing sentiment of Democrat fatigue, where people were realising the Democrats were becoming the party of war — with the endorsement of the once-Republican Cheneys moving to that side.

The Republicans had a clear campaign structure and robust targeting strategy.

The door-knockers had access to phone numbers where they could send out mass texts, and they had dedicated people on the ground in swing states, like Scott Presler in Pennsylvania, signing people up to vote.

Trump’s stance on Israel invited the Jewish community from New York to vote for him, where they would normally vote Democrat, and many ex-communist country migrants from places like Cuba and Venezuela wanted to vote in favour of free trade and wealth opportunity.

Peter Dutton, though, couldn’t garner the same impact because, generally speaking, Australians don’t think fondly about die-hard conservative politics. Australians have different priorities.

“Right-wing” politics has copped a bad name in the last five years, and anyone associated isn’t painted pretty.

Like Trump’s campaign, Labor's messaging was consistent and measured, and that's what a campaign needs to be to win — regardless of policy. Dutton missed the mark on a combination of things: poor marketing, bad rapport, and flip-flopping messaging. He left the conservative-leaning Australians searching for a leader in him, and later, a leader elsewhere.

Post-election, President Donald Trump provided comment to 7 News about the Australian election, saying, “I have no idea who the other person is who ran against [Albanese].”

“We didn’t do well enough during this campaign, and I accept full responsibility,” said Dutton during his concession speech, and it was meaningfully reflected at the polling booths.

Whilst Australians showed a pullback from the two-party preferred system with a 2.86% swing away, the Coalition only won a depressing 40 seats. This has been the lowest since Bob Hawke’s victory in 1987.

Time will tell if Albanese’s Cabinet delivers on its promises to build 100,000 homes reserved for first-home buyers, cut student debt by 20%, and open up renewable energy opportunities.

But what is clear now is that Australians voted for an Australian-true message that aligns with the Australian identity — not an American one.

The Liberals have a lot to work out now in terms of how they will rebuild in opposition.

And if, after three years, we have more of the same under Labor, Albanese will have a lot to

answer for and should pave the way for more alternative voices to represent Australians in Parliament.