The story of the 2025 Federal Election: what happened, why, and what it means

NOTE: This piece involves characterisation and analysis of the election results and Australian voters, and does not necessarily reflect the author’s personal political opinions.

(Credit: Adobe Stock - Education License)

The dust has (more or less) settled on the 2025 Federal Election — and beyond simply the Labor victory, there’s a slew of stories to unpack. 

Several seats in the House of Representatives and Senate are still being determined, and while in my opinion the 5 week campaign was fairly mundane, the results so far are anything but.

Labor landslide

Big picture first: Labor was resoundingly re-elected, making Anthony Albanese the first PM in 21 years to win two consecutive terms (since Howard in 2004), and with a victory of this size, he’s well-placed for a third.

This is no small feat given that the Coalition were leading in polling for around a year until this March. Even when polls started to turn towards Labor, most predicted either a minority or narrow majority government for Albanese.

Labor outperformed every poll and pundit. They lost no seats to the Coalition and expanded their majority to pick up 15–20 seats, likely landing them seats in the low-mid 90s (76 are needed for a majority). By comparison, Abbott won 90 in 2013, and Howard won 94 in 1996.

Governments usually go backwards in their second term. All three of the most recent governments lost upwards of 10 seats in their second term (although Howard won some back later). 

Coalition gutted, Dutton gone

After their landslide defeat under Scott Morrison in 2022 (losing 19 seats), the Liberal-Nationals hoped to win back as many as 15 seats (setting them up to be competitive in 2028), and polls indicated that was possible. 

Instead, they went backwards, and will lose over 10 seats, ending up in the low-mid 40s. 

Most notably, Peter Dutton lost his marginal Queensland seat of Dickson to Labor candidate Ali France, becoming the first opposition leader in history to do so. Just months ago, Dutton was leading in the polls. 

"Teal wave" mostly holds

Arguably, the biggest story of the 2022 election was the rise of "teal" independents, an all-female group of candidates campaigning on climate and integrity. 

This year, they nabbed six seats in former Liberal heartland, and retained all, with the exception of two tight contests in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel lost Goldstein to the former Liberal member Tim Wilson, and Monique Ryan’s seat of Kooyong is currently too close to call. A similarly tight count is underway in Bean (ACT), contested by newcomer Jessie Price.

Greens less fortunate

After the "Greenslide" of 2022 (picking up three Brisbane seats for a total of four), the party have lost at least three seats to Labor, including leader Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne (held since 2010), and housing spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather’s electorate of Griffith. However, they have retained all 11 seats in the Senate.

State and federal swings

The Liberals hoped to gain ground in the outer suburbs of Victoria and New South Wales, which house working-class families with mortgages, hit hardest by the cost-of-living crunch. 

However, this failed to materialise, and Labor saw a nationwide swing of almost 3%, as well as swings to them in every state and territory, the biggest being 8% in Tasmania. 

The Coalition now hold no seats in Tasmania or Adelaide, and are behind on the two-party preferred vote everywhere except Queensland, with 51%.

On primary (first preference) votes, Labor received around 35% (a 2% increase on 2022), Coalition 32% (-3%), Greens holding at 12%, and Independents at 13% (+3%). This means that 33% of voters did not preference one of the major parties first, a slight increase from 2022.

Why Labor won

Burned by Bill Shorten’s surprise loss in 2019, Albanese shifted Labor to a small-target strategy, which has helped them in 2022 and 2025. 

Their first term saw a modest policy platform, which attempted to address housing, wages, childcare, health, higher education, renewable energy and income tax. 

They tripped up with the failed 2023 Voice referendum, but got inflation down, delivered two budget surpluses, and promised further income tax cuts. 

They ran an airtight election campaign and stayed on message, focusing on outlining their achievements and policies, with a unified party.

Why the Libs lost

On the other side, the Coalition spent much of the last three years offering little in terms of a convincing economic vision. Try and count how many times you heard “we’ll announce our policies before the next election” during that period. 

But one of the few policies they introduced early was nuclear power. With a mammoth price tag and the first reactor expected at least a decade away, the proposal didn’t land well with voters concerned with their current power bills.

Then there was the Liberal campaign, plagued by slip-ups. Most notably, an Olympic-sized backflip on a proposal to cut 41,000 public service jobs and ban working from home for public servants. To announce a deeply unpopular policy, and then have to retract it in the middle of a campaign, was a colossal blow. 

Many policies arrived late and relatively undercooked. Health proposals from Labor were matched, yet Labor’s income tax cuts were opposed by the supposed "party of lower taxes". Messaging was inconsistent, with proposals floated by Dutton, then walked back by frontbenchers, such as deporting dual citizens who commit hate crimes.

Liberal MP’s leaked their concerns about the campaign to the media — a sign things were getting desperate.

Not to mention, a slew of candidate controversies, including with Benjamin Britton who said women should be “banned” from ADF combat roles, or with Amelia Hamer, a landlord who marketed herself as a struggling renter.

Finally, to the man himself. 

Dutton has long put forward a "strongman" image — the former cop, tough on Immigration and Defence in those portfolios, and who plays divisive politics. 

He initially tried to present a softer brand when elected Opposition Leader, yet continued to play hardline with Labor, opposing numerous policies and relentlessly attacking Albanese. 

Dutton also didn’t shy away from "culture war issues", such as promising to remove the Indigenous flag from press conferences, or criticising the Welcome to Country in the final days of the campaign. 

It’s often said that the 2022 election result was a referendum on Scott Morrison, whose deep unpopularity contributed to a thumping defeat for the Libs. Perhaps, 2025 was a referendum on Dutton.

The Trump factor

Dutton did the Libs no favours by aligning them with Trump in the early days of the U.S. presidency. 

Dutton praised the President, announced Australia’s own version of ‘DOGE’, and mirrored talking points regarding public service cuts, D.E.I., and "woke" indoctrination in schools. But it all came back to bite him after Trump announced tariffs on the world and publicly blasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.

 The head of a proposed Australian ‘DOGE’, Jacinta Price, did Dutton no favours by stating she wanted to "Make Australia Great Again".

Dutton wasn’t nicknamed "Temu Trump" for nothing.

Where do the Libs go from here?

Firstly, with Dutton gone, the Coalition are left with no leader and would need to claw back at least 35 seats to form a majority government. 

The journey to rebuild is comparable to summiting Everest. 

Selecting a leader who can unify a notoriously divided party will be no small feat. Even Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor (a frontrunner), is far from universally liked among his colleagues. Deputy Leader Sussan Ley has also pitched herself as a leader.

But beyond simply choosing a new face, the most important question will be how the Liberals rebrand to align themselves with the views and values of modern Australia. 

With Gen-Z and Millennials outnumbering Baby Boomers, how will the fiscally conservative party of small government appeal to voters today, in a cost-of-living crisis? 

Going forward - the 48th Parliament

Whilst Labor will command a thumping majority in the House of Representatives, they’ve once again fallen short in the Senate, and will need to rely on the Opposition, or crossbench, to pass legislation.